Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Graded prediction archive

Matchups — 2026-08-17

These are descriptive splits, not predictions. Nothing on this page is a pick, a ranking, or a claim about tonight — it is what each hitter has already done against this handedness, and what the starter has already allowed. Our graded boards are separate: they live on the record, where every published pick is scored against its own baseline. Handedness splits carry much smaller samples than the season-long numbers behind those boards — vs-LHP is the thin side, with a median of 68 batted balls this season against 200 vs-RHP — so treat single cells as descriptions of a small sample, not as evidence.

192 starters across 10 games for the 2026-08-17 slate. Every split is versus the handedness of the starter that hitter actually faces tonight (86 face a lefty). All figures are season-to-date through yesterday — nothing from tonight is in them. R30 columns are that hitter's most recent 30 batted balls against this hand, so every R30 cell has the same denominator and they compare directly.

Cells below the minimum sample are greyed and always sort to the bottom, so a three-batted-ball 100% rate cannot head the table. Minimums: 30 batted balls for hitter contact rates (19 of 192 rows tonight), 40 plate appearances for ISO and HR/PA, 50/50 for the pitcher columns — the same floors the model's own feature mart uses. Click any heading to sort, shift-click to add a tie-break.

bottom 10%10–30%middle 40%70–90%top 10%

Colour is league-relative, not slate-relative. The breakpoints are percentiles of the whole season's qualified population, so a green cell means the same thing every night rather than “high compared to whoever plays tonight”. They are pooled across handedness because the vs-LHP and vs-RHP league distributions are the same within noise, and the R30 columns are cut against the league's own 30-batted-ball windows rather than against season rates, so recent form is not painted red and green by small-sample spread. The breakpoints are published.

Every column is coloured from the HITTER’S point of view — green means the cell favours the hitter in that row. The pitcher columns therefore read inverted from how a pitcher would see them: a high barrel%-allowed or HR/PA-allowed is green, because it is good for the batter facing him. The one exception is SP K%, where more strikeouts hurt the hitter, so a high strikeout rate is red. Greyed cells are never coloured: if a sample is too small to read, it is too small to call high or low.

BatterTeamGameLineupvsBIPBarrel%HardHit%FB%Pull%EVISOHR/PAR30 Barrel%R30 HardHit%R30 EVStarterSP BIPSP Barrel%SP HR/PASP FB%SP K%
Henry BolteATHATH @ KC1 projvs RHP1173.4%43.6%18.8%54.7%89.00.0570.6%3.3%53.3%93.2Michael Wacha1947.2%4.3%26.3%17.3%
Zack GelofATHATH @ KC2 projvs RHP1308.5%40.0%27.7%59.2%86.90.2395.5%13.3%36.7%87.3Michael Wacha1947.2%4.3%26.3%17.3%
Jacob WilsonATHATH @ KC3 projvs RHP1833.3%30.6%19.7%62.3%84.20.1182.3%3.3%26.7%84.5Michael Wacha1947.2%4.3%26.3%17.3%
Jonah HeimATHATH @ KC4 projvs RHP1093.7%33.0%30.3%69.7%88.20.1011.3%3.3%30.0%87.1Michael Wacha2556.3%2.0%31.4%20.4%
Tommy WhiteATHATH @ KC5 projvs RHP476.4%23.4%23.4%51.1%84.90.0941.9%6.7%23.3%84.9Michael Wacha1947.2%4.3%26.3%17.3%
Lawrence ButlerATHATH @ KC6 projvs RHP1718.8%47.4%25.1%60.8%89.70.1432.9%16.7%53.3%92.3Michael Wacha2556.3%2.0%31.4%20.4%
Max MuncyATHATH @ KC7 projvs RHP6910.1%40.6%24.6%66.7%89.20.1563.4%16.7%36.7%89.4Michael Wacha1947.2%4.3%26.3%17.3%
Alika WilliamsATHATH @ KC8 projvs RHP400.0%37.5%10.0%65.0%85.30.1031.6%0.0%36.7%86.0Michael Wacha1947.2%4.3%26.3%17.3%
Carter JensenKCATH @ KC1 confvs RHP19710.7%43.7%39.1%60.9%90.90.2114.2%10.0%36.7%88.3Mason Barnett636.3%5.9%33.3%14.1%
Bobby Witt Jr.KCATH @ KC2 confvs RHP23710.5%48.1%28.3%50.6%91.20.1613.2%10.0%50.0%88.6Mason Barnett4615.2%7.3%39.1%29.3%
Jac CaglianoneKCATH @ KC3 confvs RHP20817.3%59.6%23.1%67.3%94.90.2254.8%13.3%63.3%97.3Mason Barnett636.3%5.9%33.3%14.1%
Maikel GarciaKCATH @ KC4 confvs RHP1813.3%38.1%21.0%56.4%88.70.0970.4%3.3%30.0%86.0Mason Barnett4615.2%7.3%39.1%29.3%
Vinnie PasquantinoKCATH @ KC5 confvs RHP1778.5%45.8%27.7%60.5%90.60.1432.4%3.3%50.0%91.0Mason Barnett636.3%5.9%33.3%14.1%
Nick LoftinKCATH @ KC6 projvs RHP1304.6%27.7%29.2%66.2%84.90.1612.2%3.3%20.0%80.3Mason Barnett4615.2%7.3%39.1%29.3%
Salvador PerezKCATH @ KC6 confvs RHP2559.0%38.4%28.2%60.4%88.20.1423.4%6.7%33.3%87.0Mason Barnett4615.2%7.3%39.1%29.3%
Michael MasseyKCATH @ KC7 confvs RHP2116.2%43.6%37.0%72.0%90.60.1593.0%6.7%36.7%88.8Mason Barnett636.3%5.9%33.3%14.1%
Isaac CollinsKCATH @ KC8 confvs RHP1765.7%43.2%26.7%59.7%88.40.1301.4%3.3%43.3%91.1Mason Barnett636.3%5.9%33.3%14.1%
John RaveKCATH @ KC8 projvs RHP3016.7%33.3%26.7%63.3%85.10.2334.2%16.7%33.3%85.1Mason Barnett636.3%5.9%33.3%14.1%
Kyle IsbelKCATH @ KC9 confvs RHP1183.4%35.6%18.6%55.1%84.50.1071.8%0.0%40.0%87.0Mason Barnett636.3%5.9%33.3%14.1%
Drake BaldwinATLATL @ MIN1 confvs RHP18115.5%52.5%28.2%58.6%92.80.1864.7%6.7%56.7%93.6Bailey Ober19012.1%5.1%34.2%11.9%
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLATL @ MIN2 confvs RHP13813.8%50.0%27.5%56.5%91.50.1944.3%6.7%53.3%91.9Bailey Ober1308.5%2.8%26.2%21.5%
Matt OlsonATLATL @ MIN3 confvs RHP19517.4%50.3%33.8%63.6%92.90.3057.1%23.3%43.3%90.9Bailey Ober19012.1%5.1%34.2%11.9%
Michael Harris IIATLATL @ MIN4 confvs RHP22312.6%53.8%24.7%60.1%92.50.1964.4%3.3%50.0%91.4Bailey Ober19012.1%5.1%34.2%11.9%
Mauricio DubónATLATL @ MIN5 confvs RHP2363.8%28.0%23.3%50.0%85.90.1232.0%0.0%23.3%89.0Bailey Ober1308.5%2.8%26.2%21.5%
Ozzie AlbiesATLATL @ MIN6 confvs RHP2225.0%26.1%38.3%66.2%87.10.1623.8%6.7%26.7%85.5Bailey Ober19012.1%5.1%34.2%11.9%
Mike YastrzemskiATLATL @ MIN7 confvs RHP1868.1%44.6%30.1%69.4%90.60.1793.2%13.3%46.7%92.2Bailey Ober19012.1%5.1%34.2%11.9%
Austin RileyATLATL @ MIN8 confvs RHP20512.7%44.4%33.7%55.1%91.10.1693.9%23.3%56.7%94.1Bailey Ober1308.5%2.8%26.2%21.5%
Jim JarvisATLATL @ MIN9 confvs RHP712.8%32.4%19.7%56.3%85.40.0951.1%0.0%26.7%82.3Bailey Ober19012.1%5.1%34.2%11.9%
Luke KeaschallMINATL @ MIN1 confvs LHP983.1%26.5%26.5%51.0%84.70.0810.7%0.0%26.7%84.0Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Trevor LarnachMINATL @ MIN1 projvs LHP306.7%23.3%23.3%63.3%80.70.1544.3%6.7%23.3%80.7Martín Pérez867.0%3.3%23.3%22.8%
Byron BuxtonMINATL @ MIN2 confvs LHP6921.7%58.0%30.4%75.4%93.60.1683.9%20.0%66.7%96.1Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Ryan JeffersMINATL @ MIN3 confvs LHP629.7%40.3%22.6%61.3%91.00.1732.2%3.3%33.3%86.8Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Josh BellMINATL @ MIN4 confvs LHP1188.5%33.1%28.0%60.2%88.50.1513.2%10.0%23.3%88.3Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Royce LewisMINATL @ MIN5 confvs LHP6717.9%44.8%26.9%62.7%90.30.2134.0%16.7%46.7%89.2Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Kody ClemensMINATL @ MIN6 confvs LHP7410.8%41.9%28.4%77.0%88.50.2144.7%10.0%36.7%86.8Martín Pérez867.0%3.3%23.3%22.8%
Brooks LeeMINATL @ MIN7 confvs LHP1033.9%30.1%28.2%68.0%86.20.1012.0%0.0%30.0%86.0Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Kaelen CulpepperMINATL @ MIN8 confvs LHP714.3%42.9%14.3%85.7%84.40.3647.1%14.3%42.9%84.4Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Victor CaratiniMINATL @ MIN8 projvs LHP6010.0%35.0%25.0%61.7%88.30.0881.9%6.7%33.3%88.6Martín Pérez2185.0%2.3%20.2%16.9%
Alan RodenMINATL @ MIN9 confvs LHP616.7%66.7%33.3%83.3%94.60.0000.0%16.7%66.7%94.6Martín Pérez867.0%3.3%23.3%22.8%
Geraldo PerdomoAZAZ @ BOS1 projvs LHP1121.8%27.7%19.6%59.8%81.60.0810.7%0.0%26.7%83.3Alec Gamboa352.9%0.0%17.1%14.9%
Corbin CarrollAZAZ @ BOS2 projvs LHP1057.6%49.5%25.7%64.8%90.60.2503.1%3.3%43.3%90.1Alec Gamboa156.7%4.8%26.7%23.8%
Gabriel MorenoAZAZ @ BOS3 projvs LHP786.4%53.8%28.2%55.1%91.30.1742.9%6.7%53.3%90.0Alec Gamboa352.9%0.0%17.1%14.9%
Ketel MarteAZAZ @ BOS4 projvs LHP10313.6%51.5%27.2%68.9%93.90.3036.9%20.0%43.3%93.0Alec Gamboa352.9%0.0%17.1%14.9%
Max KeplerAZAZ @ BOS5 projvs LHP911.1%55.6%22.2%55.6%89.70.1670.0%11.1%55.6%89.7Alec Gamboa156.7%4.8%26.7%23.8%
Tim TawaAZAZ @ BOS6 projvs LHP348.8%50.0%29.4%61.8%94.50.0640.0%10.0%46.7%93.8Alec Gamboa352.9%0.0%17.1%14.9%
Jahmai JonesBOSAZ @ BOS1 confvs LHP6311.1%46.0%27.0%74.6%91.60.1883.7%6.7%40.0%89.0Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Ceddanne RafaelaBOSAZ @ BOS2 confvs LHP896.7%37.1%30.3%53.9%88.10.2403.8%6.7%33.3%86.7Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Wilyer AbreuBOSAZ @ BOS3 confvs LHP11310.6%37.2%29.2%53.1%87.50.1963.1%13.3%40.0%87.2Mitch Bratt339.1%5.0%33.3%12.5%
Willson ContrerasBOSAZ @ BOS4 confvs LHP7418.9%45.9%37.8%62.2%90.40.2765.8%13.3%40.0%87.6Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Adley RutschmanBOSAZ @ BOS5 confvs LHP834.8%38.6%26.5%55.4%88.20.1352.8%0.0%30.0%87.7Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Caleb DurbinBOSAZ @ BOS6 confvs LHP974.1%30.9%19.6%55.7%84.70.1422.5%0.0%20.0%81.5Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Andruw MonasterioBOSAZ @ BOS7 confvs LHP6713.4%43.3%37.3%52.2%91.00.2995.1%13.3%43.3%91.5Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Jarren DuranBOSAZ @ BOS7 projvs LHP797.6%38.0%21.5%58.2%84.40.0620.8%3.3%30.0%81.4Mitch Bratt339.1%5.0%33.3%12.5%
Eli WhiteBOSAZ @ BOS8 confvs LHP634.8%31.7%28.6%60.3%87.60.2024.0%6.7%33.3%89.2Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Nick SogardBOSAZ @ BOS9 confvs LHP170.0%17.6%17.6%64.7%79.40.0400.0%0.0%17.6%79.4Mitch Bratt656.2%2.9%33.8%19.4%
Jackson HollidayBALBAL @ TB1 projvs LHP316.5%25.8%29.0%58.1%86.00.1201.7%6.7%26.7%86.8Shane McClanahan6010.0%2.2%26.7%22.0%
Pete AlonsoBALBAL @ TB2 projvs LHP10215.7%60.8%34.3%57.8%95.00.1994.5%23.3%73.3%97.4Shane McClanahan2178.3%1.6%27.6%22.3%
Gunnar HendersonBALBAL @ TB3 projvs LHP1193.4%35.3%18.5%63.9%85.90.2053.5%0.0%43.3%89.4Shane McClanahan6010.0%2.2%26.7%22.0%
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBALBAL @ TB4 projvs LHP1942.1%63.2%47.4%57.9%95.80.46412.5%42.1%63.2%95.8Shane McClanahan2178.3%1.6%27.6%22.3%
Dylan BeaversBALBAL @ TB5 projvs LHP260.0%15.4%30.8%57.7%80.40.0000.0%0.0%15.4%80.4Shane McClanahan6010.0%2.2%26.7%22.0%
Leody TaverasBALBAL @ TB6 projvs LHP732.7%23.3%17.8%43.8%80.70.0370.8%3.3%30.0%83.2Shane McClanahan2178.3%1.6%27.6%22.3%
Yandy DíazTBBAL @ TB1 confvs RHP2797.5%45.2%15.8%39.8%90.00.1412.7%3.3%43.3%90.0Brandon Young1376.6%2.5%27.0%24.1%
Jonathan ArandaTBBAL @ TB2 confvs RHP24811.3%44.0%34.3%56.0%90.90.1803.7%10.0%36.7%89.8Brandon Young2095.7%2.4%26.3%15.6%
Junior CamineroTBBAL @ TB3 confvs RHP26913.8%50.6%24.2%65.8%92.20.2827.1%16.7%53.3%90.9Brandon Young1376.6%2.5%27.0%24.1%
Liam HicksTBBAL @ TB4 confvs RHP2774.7%32.9%25.6%67.1%86.30.1934.2%6.7%16.7%83.9Brandon Young2095.7%2.4%26.3%15.6%
Chandler SimpsonTBBAL @ TB5 confvs RHP2690.0%13.8%13.0%48.7%82.10.0510.0%0.0%6.7%82.7Brandon Young2095.7%2.4%26.3%15.6%
Jonny DeLucaTBBAL @ TB6 projvs RHP1095.5%31.2%21.1%59.6%84.10.1964.1%10.0%36.7%85.7Brandon Young1376.6%2.5%27.0%24.1%
Ryan ViladeTBBAL @ TB6 confvs RHP535.7%39.6%24.5%58.5%87.00.1673.9%6.7%40.0%86.8Brandon Young1376.6%2.5%27.0%24.1%
Cedric MullinsTBBAL @ TB7 confvs RHP2114.7%37.9%30.8%59.2%86.60.1884.2%0.0%46.7%82.9Brandon Young2095.7%2.4%26.3%15.6%
Nick FortesTBBAL @ TB8 projvs RHP1172.6%35.0%16.2%65.8%84.20.1192.1%6.7%33.3%82.0Brandon Young1376.6%2.5%27.0%24.1%
Richie PalaciosTBBAL @ TB8 confvs RHP1724.7%32.0%21.5%57.0%85.60.1231.9%6.7%46.7%86.9Brandon Young2095.7%2.4%26.3%15.6%
Jorge MateoTBBAL @ TB9 confvs RHP5413.0%44.4%24.1%72.2%87.40.1412.4%13.3%46.7%88.8Brandon Young1376.6%2.5%27.0%24.1%
Taylor WallsTBBAL @ TB9 projvs RHP1393.6%25.2%27.3%61.2%81.30.0820.4%0.0%6.7%76.1Brandon Young2095.7%2.4%26.3%15.6%
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCCWS @ CHC1 projvs RHP22714.1%50.7%40.1%68.7%90.00.2825.6%20.0%46.7%90.8Luis Castillo20511.7%4.6%35.1%17.9%
Seiya SuzukiCHCCWS @ CHC2 projvs RHP21011.4%38.6%31.0%64.3%88.60.1984.1%20.0%40.0%87.0Luis Castillo1376.6%2.0%17.5%25.0%
Alex BregmanCHCCWS @ CHC3 projvs RHP3044.6%37.8%27.0%67.8%87.90.1593.1%10.0%50.0%90.8Luis Castillo1376.6%2.0%17.5%25.0%
Ian HappCHCCWS @ CHC4 projvs RHP20812.0%43.8%33.2%64.4%89.70.2194.2%3.3%40.0%86.6Luis Castillo20511.7%4.6%35.1%17.9%
Nico HoernerCHCCWS @ CHC5 projvs RHP3281.2%28.0%18.9%49.1%85.70.0951.3%0.0%26.7%83.0Luis Castillo1376.6%2.0%17.5%25.0%
Pedro RamírezCHCCWS @ CHC6 projvs RHP812.5%44.4%18.5%66.7%89.20.1250.9%3.3%53.3%91.4Luis Castillo20511.7%4.6%35.1%17.9%
Chase MeidrothCWSCWS @ CHC1 confvs LHP974.1%40.2%20.6%59.8%87.90.2032.8%3.3%40.0%85.4Shota Imanaga2888.7%4.5%30.6%21.9%
Munetaka MurakamiCWSCWS @ CHC2 confvs LHP5617.9%60.7%32.1%64.3%93.10.2184.9%16.7%63.3%92.8Shota Imanaga10312.6%6.4%36.9%27.4%
Miguel VargasCWSCWS @ CHC3 confvs LHP11115.3%56.8%34.2%62.2%93.20.2976.7%10.0%53.3%93.3Shota Imanaga2888.7%4.5%30.6%21.9%
Randal GrichukCWSCWS @ CHC4 confvs LHP8913.5%50.6%30.3%58.4%91.20.3005.5%6.7%56.7%93.3Shota Imanaga2888.7%4.5%30.6%21.9%
Braden MontgomeryCWSCWS @ CHC5 confvs LHP382.6%39.5%26.3%55.3%84.80.1231.5%3.3%40.0%84.2Shota Imanaga2888.7%4.5%30.6%21.9%
Colson MontgomeryCWSCWS @ CHC5 projvs LHP9610.4%33.3%30.2%77.1%85.70.2345.1%0.0%30.0%83.0Shota Imanaga10312.6%6.4%36.9%27.4%
Brenton DoyleCWSCWS @ CHC6 confvs LHP397.7%38.5%23.1%53.8%86.10.1231.6%6.7%36.7%85.8Shota Imanaga2888.7%4.5%30.6%21.9%
Sam AntonacciCWSCWS @ CHC7 confvs LHP591.7%22.0%8.5%64.4%81.50.0390.0%0.0%30.0%82.2Shota Imanaga10312.6%6.4%36.9%27.4%
Luisangel AcuñaCWSCWS @ CHC8 confvs LHP711.4%43.7%16.9%60.6%90.00.0240.0%0.0%50.0%90.6Shota Imanaga2888.7%4.5%30.6%21.9%
Jake RogersCWSCWS @ CHC9 confvs LHP166.2%50.0%50.0%81.2%89.20.1743.7%6.2%50.0%89.2Shota Imanaga2888.7%4.5%30.6%21.9%
Gleyber TorresDETDET @ PIT1 confvs RHP1494.7%30.9%24.2%38.9%86.00.1222.8%3.3%26.7%85.1Carmen Mlodzinski1224.9%1.2%16.4%21.3%
Kevin McGonigleDETDET @ PIT2 confvs RHP2777.9%37.9%36.1%58.8%88.40.1542.3%0.0%33.3%85.7Carmen Mlodzinski1958.7%2.3%30.3%15.9%
Dillon DinglerDETDET @ PIT3 confvs RHP23512.3%43.4%31.5%62.6%88.70.2846.5%13.3%36.7%87.7Carmen Mlodzinski1224.9%1.2%16.4%21.3%
Colt KeithDETDET @ PIT4 confvs RHP2397.5%43.1%27.6%57.3%89.70.1672.8%3.3%46.7%89.8Carmen Mlodzinski1958.7%2.3%30.3%15.9%
Spencer TorkelsonDETDET @ PIT5 projvs RHP20014.0%42.5%35.5%66.0%89.70.2044.8%13.3%36.7%89.6Carmen Mlodzinski1224.9%1.2%16.4%21.3%
Zach McKinstryDETDET @ PIT5 confvs RHP2023.0%23.8%31.2%55.9%85.50.1241.5%0.0%30.0%89.5Carmen Mlodzinski1958.7%2.3%30.3%15.9%
Hao-Yu LeeDETDET @ PIT6 confvs RHP828.5%36.6%22.0%48.8%86.90.1553.4%13.3%53.3%92.2Carmen Mlodzinski1224.9%1.2%16.4%21.3%
Brett CallahanDETDET @ PIT7 confvs RHP10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%82.41.0000.0%0.0%0.0%82.4Carmen Mlodzinski1958.7%2.3%30.3%15.9%
Max ClarkDETDET @ PIT8 confvs RHP300.0%30.0%33.3%43.3%87.00.1462.3%0.0%30.0%87.0Carmen Mlodzinski1958.7%2.3%30.3%15.9%
Javier BáezDETDET @ PIT9 confvs RHP741.4%31.1%20.3%75.7%85.20.0851.0%0.0%33.3%86.1Carmen Mlodzinski1224.9%1.2%16.4%21.3%
Jared TrioloPITDET @ PIT1 confvs LHP791.3%31.6%19.0%62.0%84.40.0530.0%3.3%23.3%81.8Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Esmerlyn ValdezPITDET @ PIT2 confvs LHP4025.0%62.5%52.5%60.0%97.20.4628.6%20.0%56.7%96.1Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Bryan ReynoldsPITDET @ PIT3 confvs LHP11911.8%46.2%27.7%56.3%91.20.1933.3%16.7%46.7%91.2Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Nick GonzalesPITDET @ PIT4 confvs LHP1120.9%30.4%23.2%50.9%85.90.0510.7%0.0%20.0%86.4Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Brandon LowePITDET @ PIT5 confvs LHP899.0%39.3%34.8%69.7%89.00.1313.1%6.7%36.7%88.3Framber Valdez865.8%1.5%17.4%27.7%
Rafael Flores Jr.PITDET @ PIT6 confvs LHP1526.7%46.7%60.0%73.3%92.10.40911.1%26.7%46.7%92.1Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Jake MangumPITDET @ PIT7 confvs LHP741.4%23.0%21.6%43.2%83.80.0761.0%3.3%20.0%84.3Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Billy CookPITDET @ PIT8 projvs LHP170.0%23.5%29.4%52.9%79.20.1030.0%0.0%23.5%79.2Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Nick YorkePITDET @ PIT8 confvs LHP254.0%48.0%36.0%56.0%89.40.0882.6%4.0%48.0%89.4Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Henry DavisPITDET @ PIT9 confvs LHP547.4%40.7%27.8%64.8%90.10.1032.8%0.0%46.7%90.2Framber Valdez3306.1%2.4%20.3%15.1%
Jake McCarthyCOLLAD @ COL1 confvs LHP836.0%22.9%16.9%62.7%78.80.2303.8%3.3%30.0%79.1Blake Snell50.0%0.0%20.0%52.9%
Cole CarriggCOLLAD @ COL2 confvs LHP646.2%37.5%31.2%62.5%86.40.1952.2%6.7%36.7%89.9Blake Snell170.0%0.0%23.5%26.1%
Hunter GoodmanCOLLAD @ COL3 confvs LHP7615.8%48.7%32.9%67.1%90.80.2345.5%13.3%46.7%89.8Blake Snell170.0%0.0%23.5%26.1%
Mickey MoniakCOLLAD @ COL3 projvs LHP368.3%38.9%36.1%61.1%84.80.1453.3%6.7%43.3%84.4Blake Snell50.0%0.0%20.0%52.9%
Willi CastroCOLLAD @ COL4 confvs LHP934.3%28.0%28.0%62.4%81.20.1192.1%6.7%23.3%77.6Blake Snell170.0%0.0%23.5%26.1%
TJ RumfieldCOLLAD @ COL5 confvs LHP1041.0%18.3%23.1%53.8%80.80.1031.4%3.3%23.3%83.6Blake Snell50.0%0.0%20.0%52.9%
Troy JohnstonCOLLAD @ COL5 projvs LHP673.0%40.3%29.9%55.2%88.90.0771.2%0.0%43.3%89.9Blake Snell50.0%0.0%20.0%52.9%
Jordan BeckCOLLAD @ COL6 confvs LHP313.2%32.3%32.3%54.8%84.50.2052.1%3.3%33.3%84.4Blake Snell170.0%0.0%23.5%26.1%
Zac VeenCOLLAD @ COL6 projvs LHP10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%44.10.0000.0%0.0%0.0%44.1Blake Snell50.0%0.0%20.0%52.9%
Connor NorbyCOLLAD @ COL7 confvs LHP3912.8%33.3%41.0%61.5%84.50.1191.3%10.0%30.0%82.5Blake Snell170.0%0.0%23.5%26.1%
Brett SullivanCOLLAD @ COL8 projvs LHP320.0%25.0%9.4%75.0%81.70.1080.0%0.0%26.7%81.0Blake Snell50.0%0.0%20.0%52.9%
Ezequiel TovarCOLLAD @ COL8 confvs LHP728.3%30.6%40.3%63.9%85.60.1301.7%10.0%33.3%84.2Blake Snell170.0%0.0%23.5%26.1%
Adael AmadorCOLLAD @ COL9 confvs LHP0Blake Snell0
Shohei OhtaniLADLAD @ COL1 projvs RHP20716.4%57.5%30.4%67.1%94.60.2314.3%10.0%53.3%94.1Tomoyuki Sugano20515.1%6.6%33.7%13.2%
Freddie FreemanLADLAD @ COL2 projvs RHP2539.9%44.3%27.3%56.9%90.30.1843.2%3.3%40.0%88.4Tomoyuki Sugano20515.1%6.6%33.7%13.2%
Andy PagesLADLAD @ COL3 projvs RHP2666.8%38.0%24.4%54.5%87.90.1643.4%3.3%13.3%84.6Tomoyuki Sugano17512.0%3.2%28.6%14.7%
Max MuncyLADLAD @ COL4 projvs RHP20413.7%48.0%34.3%69.1%91.00.2415.5%16.7%50.0%91.0Tomoyuki Sugano20515.1%6.6%33.7%13.2%
Mookie BettsLADLAD @ COL5 projvs RHP1967.1%38.3%34.7%64.8%89.70.1914.9%3.3%33.3%88.6Tomoyuki Sugano17512.0%3.2%28.6%14.7%
Kyle TuckerLADLAD @ COL6 projvs RHP2295.7%36.7%34.1%64.2%88.30.1312.7%0.0%30.0%85.1Tomoyuki Sugano20515.1%6.6%33.7%13.2%
Tommy EdmanLADLAD @ COL7 projvs RHP914.4%34.1%28.6%63.7%86.90.1010.8%0.0%23.3%85.4Tomoyuki Sugano20515.1%6.6%33.7%13.2%
Esteury RuizMIAMIA @ PHI1 confvs LHP4012.5%37.5%40.0%72.5%86.00.2925.1%13.3%36.7%84.9Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Heriberto HernándezMIAMIA @ PHI2 confvs LHP7513.3%45.3%26.7%70.7%92.30.3177.8%16.7%43.3%93.9Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Xavier EdwardsMIAMIA @ PHI3 confvs LHP884.5%28.4%19.3%44.3%84.30.1433.3%0.0%26.7%82.9Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Agustín RamírezMIAMIA @ PHI4 confvs LHP2910.3%51.7%17.2%62.1%94.40.2052.1%10.3%51.7%94.4Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Otto LopezMIAMIA @ PHI5 confvs LHP1037.8%42.7%25.2%47.6%90.50.1591.7%6.7%43.3%91.5Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Javier SanojaMIAMIA @ PHI6 confvs LHP853.5%34.1%18.8%54.1%85.50.1922.9%3.3%33.3%86.6Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Leo JiménezMIAMIA @ PHI7 confvs LHP555.5%43.6%21.8%52.7%90.10.1142.6%6.7%50.0%91.0Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Griffin ConineMIAMIA @ PHI8 confvs LHP195.3%42.1%15.8%63.2%90.00.0000.0%5.3%42.1%90.0Cristopher Sánchez923.3%0.7%17.4%37.9%
Jakob MarseeMIAMIA @ PHI8 projvs LHP521.9%36.5%17.3%61.5%84.50.1031.0%3.3%33.3%81.1Cristopher Sánchez923.3%0.7%17.4%37.9%
Brian NavarretoMIAMIA @ PHI9 confvs LHP911.1%11.1%0.0%55.6%78.60.0710.0%11.1%11.1%78.6Cristopher Sánchez3328.7%2.4%16.9%24.9%
Kyle SchwarberPHIMIA @ PHI1 confvs RHP15719.1%58.6%36.9%72.6%94.80.3017.5%16.7%60.0%93.8Janson Junk1756.9%2.6%17.7%17.9%
Trea TurnerPHIMIA @ PHI2 confvs RHP2596.2%39.0%26.3%53.3%87.80.1743.9%3.3%20.0%81.5Janson Junk1097.3%4.3%30.3%15.8%
Bryce HarperPHIMIA @ PHI3 confvs RHP21712.9%48.8%27.6%67.3%91.40.3126.3%6.7%46.7%90.2Janson Junk1756.9%2.6%17.7%17.9%
Luis ArraezPHIMIA @ PHI4 confvs RHP3331.2%21.0%34.2%48.0%87.30.1191.1%0.0%6.7%83.6Janson Junk1756.9%2.6%17.7%17.9%
Alec BohmPHIMIA @ PHI5 confvs RHP2635.3%45.2%19.8%50.2%90.70.1152.3%16.7%40.0%88.3Janson Junk1097.3%4.3%30.3%15.8%
Bryson StottPHIMIA @ PHI6 confvs RHP2666.8%43.6%28.9%64.7%90.70.1531.9%0.0%33.3%87.8Janson Junk1756.9%2.6%17.7%17.9%
Brandon MarshPHIMIA @ PHI7 confvs RHP2518.0%47.4%26.7%57.4%90.30.1764.0%6.7%53.3%88.4Janson Junk1756.9%2.6%17.7%17.9%
J.T. RealmutoPHIMIA @ PHI8 confvs RHP1775.6%40.1%23.2%63.8%88.50.1382.6%0.0%33.3%88.1Janson Junk1097.3%4.3%30.3%15.8%
Justin CrawfordPHIMIA @ PHI9 confvs RHP2341.7%37.6%19.2%47.4%86.70.1050.6%6.7%50.0%89.6Janson Junk1756.9%2.6%17.7%17.9%
A.J. EwingNYMSD @ NYM1 confvs RHP1657.3%41.8%25.5%57.6%89.20.1192.0%3.3%40.0%86.2Walker Buehler1886.9%1.8%20.7%21.0%
Francisco LindorNYMSD @ NYM2 confvs RHP13910.8%53.2%30.9%68.3%92.50.1963.8%10.0%56.7%93.3Walker Buehler1886.9%1.8%20.7%21.0%
Bo BichetteNYMSD @ NYM3 confvs RHP2965.7%42.2%23.6%40.9%89.30.1011.8%6.7%46.7%92.2Walker Buehler15710.2%4.1%25.5%19.0%
Carson BengeNYMSD @ NYM4 confvs RHP2626.5%43.1%26.0%53.1%89.90.1422.7%6.7%50.0%91.4Walker Buehler1886.9%1.8%20.7%21.0%
Luis Robert Jr.NYMSD @ NYM5 confvs RHP832.4%33.7%24.1%62.7%87.30.1042.4%6.7%26.7%84.6Walker Buehler15710.2%4.1%25.5%19.0%
Jared YoungNYMSD @ NYM6 confvs RHP15010.0%47.3%23.3%68.0%89.40.2053.9%6.7%53.3%90.3Walker Buehler1886.9%1.8%20.7%21.0%
Brett BatyNYMSD @ NYM7 projvs RHP2019.0%42.8%28.9%60.2%90.30.1292.6%10.0%53.3%93.3Walker Buehler1886.9%1.8%20.7%21.0%
Marcus SemienNYMSD @ NYM7 confvs RHP2157.0%34.0%29.3%69.8%85.20.1463.6%3.3%20.0%85.2Walker Buehler15710.2%4.1%25.5%19.0%
Jorge PolancoNYMSD @ NYM8 confvs RHP762.6%34.2%18.4%72.4%85.70.1081.8%6.7%40.0%86.9Walker Buehler1886.9%1.8%20.7%21.0%
Francisco AlvarezNYMSD @ NYM9 confvs RHP14416.7%45.8%26.4%75.0%90.60.2104.7%23.3%50.0%91.3Walker Buehler15710.2%4.1%25.5%19.0%
Luis TorrensNYMSD @ NYM9 projvs RHP1115.4%41.4%18.9%41.4%87.90.1281.9%6.7%43.3%86.8Walker Buehler15710.2%4.1%25.5%19.0%
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDSD @ NYM1 projvs RHP30411.5%54.3%21.7%54.9%92.50.1232.1%20.0%46.7%94.3Nolan McLean1305.4%1.8%18.5%29.5%
Jake CronenworthSDSD @ NYM2 projvs RHP1424.9%35.9%21.8%53.5%87.60.0731.4%0.0%30.0%87.0Nolan McLean2147.9%3.2%27.6%26.9%
Manny MachadoSDSD @ NYM3 projvs RHP26010.0%45.0%26.9%60.0%90.30.1974.8%3.3%50.0%93.6Nolan McLean1305.4%1.8%18.5%29.5%
Ty FranceSDSD @ NYM4 projvs RHP17410.9%47.7%27.6%59.8%92.00.2435.6%6.7%50.0%91.5Nolan McLean1305.4%1.8%18.5%29.5%
Jackson MerrillSDSD @ NYM5 projvs RHP25613.3%46.5%30.5%55.5%89.20.1894.2%20.0%56.7%94.2Nolan McLean2147.9%3.2%27.6%26.9%
Luis RengifoSDSD @ NYM6 projvs RHP1534.6%31.4%15.7%56.9%86.10.0951.5%3.3%20.0%85.6Nolan McLean2147.9%3.2%27.6%26.9%
Gavin SheetsSDSD @ NYM7 projvs RHP2168.3%38.9%25.0%56.5%87.40.2174.9%6.7%33.3%86.1Nolan McLean2147.9%3.2%27.6%26.9%
Xander BogaertsSDSD @ NYM8 projvs RHP2357.2%40.0%24.7%66.8%88.20.1202.8%10.0%43.3%91.2Nolan McLean1305.4%1.8%18.5%29.5%
Elly De La CruzCINSTL @ CIN1 projvs RHP20812.0%51.4%28.4%60.1%93.20.1753.5%10.0%40.0%90.5Andre Pallante2196.8%2.1%17.4%16.2%
Elly De La CruzCINSTL @ CIN1 confvs LHP7319.2%54.8%26.0%46.6%94.90.3246.5%16.7%50.0%94.9Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
Sal StewartCINSTL @ CIN2 projvs RHP27212.9%39.0%30.5%49.6%89.80.2154.9%6.7%26.7%86.7Andre Pallante1793.9%1.6%17.9%18.1%
Sal StewartCINSTL @ CIN2 confvs LHP7516.0%44.0%29.3%54.7%91.40.2154.8%6.7%50.0%92.0Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
JJ BledayCINSTL @ CIN3 projvs RHP18910.1%40.7%35.4%69.3%89.20.2315.0%3.3%36.7%88.6Andre Pallante2196.8%2.1%17.4%16.2%
Tyler StephensonCINSTL @ CIN3 confvs LHP417.3%36.6%41.5%61.0%90.30.0540.0%10.0%43.3%89.8Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
Eugenio SuárezCINSTL @ CIN4 projvs RHP15710.8%35.0%30.6%68.2%88.00.2104.9%20.0%53.3%89.9Andre Pallante1793.9%1.6%17.9%18.1%
Eugenio SuárezCINSTL @ CIN4 confvs LHP3616.7%44.4%41.7%58.3%91.30.2145.0%13.3%40.0%89.7Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
Dane MyersCINSTL @ CIN5 confvs LHP547.4%42.6%37.0%44.4%89.70.1542.2%0.0%43.3%88.0Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
Michael TogliaCINSTL @ CIN5 projvs RHP50.0%60.0%20.0%60.0%94.90.1000.0%0.0%60.0%94.9Andre Pallante2196.8%2.1%17.4%16.2%
Matt McLainCINSTL @ CIN6 projvs RHP16410.4%40.9%34.1%57.3%88.10.1492.5%13.3%40.0%84.0Andre Pallante1793.9%1.6%17.9%18.1%
Michael TogliaCINSTL @ CIN6 confvs LHP20.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%76.30.0000.0%0.0%0.0%76.3Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
Matt McLainCINSTL @ CIN7 confvs LHP539.4%26.4%35.8%45.3%81.90.1714.7%6.7%20.0%77.8Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
Noelvi MarteCINSTL @ CIN8 confvs LHP3112.9%29.0%38.7%61.3%88.50.2045.9%13.3%26.7%88.1Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
JJ BledayCINSTL @ CIN9 confvs LHP637.9%41.3%30.2%61.9%86.30.2005.1%6.7%43.3%85.7Quinn Mathews20.0%0.0%0.0%33.3%
Ke'Bryan HayesCINSTL @ CIN9 confvs LHP323.1%40.6%25.0%46.9%90.10.0952.2%3.3%43.3%90.3Quinn Mathews160.0%0.0%37.5%9.5%
JJ WetherholtSTLSTL @ CIN1 projvs RHP2355.1%43.0%27.7%57.9%89.40.1403.2%3.3%40.0%90.3Rhett Lowder18013.3%4.1%37.8%18.9%
Iván HerreraSTLSTL @ CIN2 projvs RHP2575.4%40.1%17.9%56.4%89.40.1312.1%6.7%63.3%94.7Rhett Lowder1123.6%0.7%14.3%17.0%
Alec BurlesonSTLSTL @ CIN3 projvs RHP25913.5%52.5%28.6%64.5%92.50.2575.0%16.7%63.3%96.1Rhett Lowder18013.3%4.1%37.8%18.9%
Jordan WalkerSTLSTL @ CIN4 projvs RHP25312.3%43.5%25.3%63.6%91.70.1964.2%10.0%43.3%89.7Rhett Lowder1123.6%0.7%14.3%17.0%
Joshua BáezSTLSTL @ CIN5 projvs RHP20.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%90.90.0000.0%0.0%50.0%90.9Rhett Lowder1123.6%0.7%14.3%17.0%
Nathan ChurchSTLSTL @ CIN6 projvs RHP2025.9%31.7%21.8%53.5%85.50.1272.6%3.3%23.3%84.4Rhett Lowder18013.3%4.1%37.8%18.9%
Masyn WinnSTLSTL @ CIN7 projvs RHP2404.2%35.8%19.2%47.9%87.40.0811.1%6.7%33.3%88.5Rhett Lowder1123.6%0.7%14.3%17.0%
Jimmy CrooksSTLSTL @ CIN8 projvs RHP677.5%49.3%40.3%59.7%91.60.1302.7%10.0%43.3%91.1Rhett Lowder18013.3%4.1%37.8%18.9%
Blaze JordanSTLSTL @ CIN9 projvs RHP828.5%47.6%22.0%57.3%89.00.0731.0%10.0%50.0%87.0Rhett Lowder1123.6%0.7%14.3%17.0%

Derived from the same pitch-level data the model trains on, using the model's own definitions of a batted ball, a barrel, hard-hit contact and a pulled ball — sliced by handedness, which the model itself does not carry. Strictly through yesterday.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data