Sparrow Data

Pick history — Lawrence Butler

Lawrence Butler

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 11 games across 11 nights, from 15 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.55 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

20%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.109	1.46x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-20	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.127	1.10x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-21	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.26x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-23	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.26x	+SP fly balls allowed, +park factor	no
2026-08-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.26x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.125	1.27x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-31	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.124	1.13x	−SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-06	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.124	1.24x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-13	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.25x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data