Sparrow Data

Pick history — Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 16 games across 16 nights, from 24 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 8 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.40 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

22%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.107	1.49x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-08-26	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.107	1.25x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.222	0.110	2.03x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-09-03	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.111	1.47x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.100	1.82x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.100	1.82x	+career barrel rate, −lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-09-07	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.111	1.21x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-09-08	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.111	1.06x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.112	1.42x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-11	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	not yet graded
2026-09-12	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.113	1.27x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-09-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.115	1.39x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-16	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.115	1.25x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-23	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.174	0.116	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data