Sparrow Data

Pick history — Brett Baty

Brett Baty

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 29 games across 29 nights, from 44 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 15 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.63 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

28%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-10	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.104	1.29x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.106	1.35x	+SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-16	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.112	1.28x	+park factor, −lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.111	1.29x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.106	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.32x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-06	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.115	1.39x	+recent barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-07	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.116	1.21x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-12	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.32x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.108	1.51x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.108	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.108	1.41x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.095	1.68x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.096	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-09-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.098	1.43x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.099	1.36x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.100	1.59x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-08	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.092	1.27x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-13	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.099	1.61x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.099	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-09-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.42x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.091	1.76x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.091	1.76x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-26	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.084	1.60x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data