Sparrow Data
Pick history — Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 7 games across 7 nights, from 8 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.
Times picked
7graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
2against 1.14 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
29%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.178 | 0.122 | 1.46x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-11 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.51x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-16 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.121 | 1.31x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-08-25 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.128 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-09-04 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.121 | 1.31x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-17 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.120 | 1.33x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-09-24 | AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.114 | 1.23x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data