Sparrow Data

Pick history — Cam Smith

Cam Smith

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 15 games across 15 nights, from 20 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 5 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.58 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.089	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-11	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.089	1.38x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-17	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.097	1.27x	+SP fly balls allowed, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-18	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.096	1.28x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.105	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.112	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.35x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.118	1.21x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-20	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.124	1.15x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.174	0.124	1.41x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-27	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-25	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.123	1.16x	−SP exit velo allowed, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data