Sparrow Data

Pick history — Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 20 games across 20 nights, from 30 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 10 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.81 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

10%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.091	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.098	1.56x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.097	1.47x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.097	1.64x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.097	1.64x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.097	1.47x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.36x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.098	1.27x	+recent barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-29	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.38x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.38x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.102	1.31x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-07	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.109	1.23x	+career hard-hit rate, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-10	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.114	1.25x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-14	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.108	1.25x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-15	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.108	1.25x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data