Sparrow Data

Pick history — Matt Olson

Matt Olson

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 22 games across 22 nights, from 25 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 4.87 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

38%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.194	1.09x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.200	0.96x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.200	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.199	1.06x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.199	1.02x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.199	1.21x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.203	1.04x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-27	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.203	1.12x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.209	1.15x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.214	1.13x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.225	1.07x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.225	1.07x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.225	1.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.236	1.02x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.236	0.96x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.243	0.99x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.237	0.89x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.241	1.18x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.243	0.99x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.243	1.05x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.243	0.99x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-17	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.248	1.03x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data