Sparrow Data

Pick history — Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 27 games across 27 nights, from 30 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 6.50 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

22%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.238	1.01x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.238	0.97x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.249	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.247	1.03x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
2026-07-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.244	0.99x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.242	1.00x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.248	1.03x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.248	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-27	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.246	0.82x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-28	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.244	1.04x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	HOME RUN
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.249	1.16x	+park factor, +SP exit velo allowed	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.248	0.97x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.244	0.99x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.243	1.05x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.241	1.00x	−SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.239	1.19x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
2026-08-07	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.238	0.96x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.236	0.89x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.235	1.03x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.233	0.90x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.232	0.91x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.229	1.05x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.233	1.03x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.232	1.04x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data