Sparrow Data
Pick history — Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 27 games across 27 nights, from 31 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.
Times picked
26graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
3against 6.68 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
12%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.289 | 1.01x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-10 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.283 | 0.90x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-11 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.283 | 0.85x | +season hard-hit rate, −park factor | no |
| 2026-07-12 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.276 | 0.84x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-16 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.278 | 1.05x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-18 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.276 | 0.92x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-19 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.276 | 0.87x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-20 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.271 | 1.07x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-21 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.271 | 1.07x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-22 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.271 | 1.07x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-24 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.261 | 0.98x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-25 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.259 | 0.98x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-26 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.254 | 0.95x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-27 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.254 | 1.00x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-31 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.252 | 0.95x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-01 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.251 | 0.96x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-02 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.251 | 0.96x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-08-03 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.251 | 0.84x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-04 | ELEVATED, FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.245 | 1.16x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-05 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.240 | 1.06x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-06 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.240 | 1.19x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-07 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.240 | 0.94x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-08-08 | ELEVATED, FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.280 | 0.238 | 1.18x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-09 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.233 | 1.09x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-08-13 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.233 | 1.04x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-08-16 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.235 | 0.234 | 1.01x | +season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-17 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.234 | 1.03x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data