Sparrow Data

Pick history — Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 61 games across 61 nights, from 67 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 6 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 14.66 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

18%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.289	1.01x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.283	0.90x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.283	0.85x	+season hard-hit rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.276	0.84x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-16	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.278	1.05x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-18	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.276	0.92x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.276	0.87x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.271	1.07x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.271	1.07x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.271	1.07x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.261	0.98x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.259	0.98x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.254	0.95x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-27	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.254	1.00x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.252	0.95x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.251	0.84x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.245	1.16x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.240	1.06x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.240	1.19x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-07	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.240	0.94x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.280	0.238	1.18x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.233	1.09x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.233	1.04x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.235	0.234	1.01x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.234	1.03x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.234	0.96x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.234	0.97x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.224	0.91x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.223	1.08x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.228	1.00x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.234	0.90x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.234	0.97x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.234	0.90x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-28	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.241	1.00x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.235	1.21x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.235	1.02x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.235	0.96x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.235	0.89x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.235	1.02x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.235	1.02x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.241	0.98x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-07	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.247	1.03x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-08	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.252	1.01x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.252	0.90x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-10	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.280	0.252	1.11x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.252	0.89x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.252	0.95x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.252	0.95x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.242	0.95x	+pull tendency, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.242	0.93x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.242	0.87x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.242	0.99x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.241	0.94x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.241	1.00x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.242	0.99x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.241	1.00x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.235	1.02x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.230	0.99x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.230	1.05x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data