Sparrow Data

Pick history — Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 28 games across 28 nights, from 29 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 6.62 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

22%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.282	0.90x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.278	0.87x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-18	AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.275	1.06x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.271	0.89x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.268	0.95x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.264	0.91x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.261	0.92x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.258	0.93x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.255	0.89x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.252	0.96x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-27	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.261	0.81x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-28	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.258	0.94x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.263	0.92x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.260	1.12x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.268	0.90x	+season hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.265	0.91x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.263	0.88x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.260	0.93x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.257	0.88x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-07	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.254	0.83x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.262	0.92x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.270	0.89x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.280	0.267	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-12	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.264	1.08x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.262	0.92x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.269	0.90x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.266	0.91x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-17	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.273	1.06x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data