Sparrow Data

Pick history — Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuña Jr.

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 13 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.92 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

40%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-27	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.144	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.144	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.136	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-31	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.143	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.142	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-04	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.148	1.27x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.29x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-08	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.151	1.27x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-12	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.154	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data