Sparrow Data

Pick history — Brady House

Brady House

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 13 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.08 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

14%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.33x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.35x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-08	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.113	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-11	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.117	1.40x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.113	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-06	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.121	1.35x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data