Sparrow Data

Pick history — Riley Greene

Riley Greene

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 13 games across 13 nights, from 24 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 11 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.17 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

18%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.151	1.39x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.150	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-07-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.150	1.40x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.156	1.17x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.156	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-23	AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.156	1.17x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.149	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.156	1.20x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.156	1.20x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-11	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.149	1.22x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data