Sparrow Data

Pick history — Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 4 games across 4 nights, from 5 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.64 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

25%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-06	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.29x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	HOME RUN
2026-08-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.37x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-24	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.132	1.06x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+lineup slot, +SP career HR rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data