Sparrow Data

Pick history — J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 17 games across 17 nights, from 21 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.12 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

12%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-12	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.118	0.99x	−SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-21	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.117	1.22x	+career hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-25	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.111	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.112	1.28x	+career hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-15	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.112	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.112	1.26x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-23	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.090	1.16x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.090	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-25	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.097	1.22x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-28	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.098	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.090	1.49x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-07	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.099	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-15	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.099	1.24x	−SP HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-20	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.099	1.36x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.098	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data