Sparrow Data
Pick history — Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 14 games across 14 nights, from 18 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.
Times picked
14graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
3against 3.01 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
21%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.209 | 0.97x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-16 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.203 | 0.92x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-20 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.191 | 1.10x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-22 | ELEVATED, FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.197 | 1.22x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-07-27 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.186 | 1.13x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-08-04 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.197 | 1.03x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-05 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.191 | 1.18x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-06 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.191 | 1.18x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-08-08 | ELEVATED, FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.190 | 1.27x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-08-09 | ELEVATED, FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.196 | 1.23x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-08-13 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.190 | 1.07x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-17 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.186 | 1.09x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-08-29 | ELEVATED, FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.187 | 1.21x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-07 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.176 | 1.09x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data