Sparrow Data

Pick history — Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 12 games across 12 nights, from 15 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.39 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

27%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.209	0.97x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.203	0.92x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.191	1.10x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-22	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.197	1.22x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-27	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.186	1.13x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.197	1.03x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.191	1.18x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.191	1.18x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.190	1.27x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-09	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.196	1.23x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.190	1.07x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.186	1.09x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data