Sparrow Data
Pick history — Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 37 games across 37 nights, from 53 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 16 of them.
Times picked
34graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
2against 3.93 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
6%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.108 | 1.32x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-17 | AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.114 | 1.25x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-19 | AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.114 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-20 | AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.114 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-07-23 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-25 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-27 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.102 | 1.38x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-01 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.098 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-02 | ELEVATED | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.092 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| 2026-08-03 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.092 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| 2026-08-04 | ELEVATED | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.092 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-09 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.087 | 1.55x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-08-11 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.081 | 1.14x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-22 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.070 | 1.77x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-23 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.069 | 1.79x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-25 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.069 | 1.71x | +career barrel rate, −platoon edge | no |
| 2026-08-26 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.069 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-08-27 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.069 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-28 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.069 | 1.70x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-29 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.068 | 1.80x | +SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-30 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.068 | 1.53x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-01 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.086 | 0.069 | 1.26x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-02 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.069 | 1.29x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-04 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.069 | 1.52x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-07 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.062 | 1.42x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-09-08 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.062 | 1.68x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-09-09 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.100 | 0.062 | 1.62x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-09-12 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.062 | 1.29x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-13 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.062 | 1.29x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-14 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.068 | 1.53x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-09-15 | AROUND SLATE, SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.068 | 1.53x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-09-18 | AROUND SLATE, SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.069 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-09-19 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.069 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-09-20 | AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.100 | 0.069 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-09-21 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.069 | 1.69x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-09-25 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.070 | 1.77x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-26 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.070 | 1.27x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data