Sparrow Data

Pick history — Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 13 games across 13 nights, from 17 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.74 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.114	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-19	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.114	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-20	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.114	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-27	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.102	1.38x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.098	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.092	1.34x	+career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-03	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.092	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.092	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.087	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.081	1.14x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data