Sparrow Data

Pick history — Lars Nootbaar

Lars Nootbaar

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 47 games across 46 nights, from 75 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 28 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 3.66 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

11%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.048	1.69x	−park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-11	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.048	1.69x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-12	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.059	1.78x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.058	1.79x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-18	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.058	2.04x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.057	1.83x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-22	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.055	2.12x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-07-23	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.055	1.66x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.055	1.47x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-26	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.054	1.50x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-28	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.053	1.97x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.053	1.64x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-31	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.052	1.70x	−SP career HR rate, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-01	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.052	1.67x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.051	2.05x	+career barrel rate, +platoon edge	no
2026-08-03	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.051	2.05x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-05	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.051	1.59x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-06	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.57x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-07	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.051	1.73x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.050	1.62x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-12	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-14	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.041	2.24x	+SP career HR rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-15	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.041	1.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-16	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.041	1.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-18	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.041	1.94x	+pull tendency, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-22	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.043	2.07x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-23	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.043	2.01x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-24	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.043	1.87x	−park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-25	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.043	1.89x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-26	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.043	1.87x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-28	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.043	2.05x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-29	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.053	2.21x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-29	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.053	2.21x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-31	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.054	1.95x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-02	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.054	2.17x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-04	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.055	2.91x	+SP fly balls allowed, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-05	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.054	2.59x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-06	SLEEPERS	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.054	2.94x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-09-09	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.055	1.60x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-14	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.056	2.38x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-15	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.067	1.84x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-16	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.067	2.10x	−park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-18	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.068	1.55x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-20	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.067	1.84x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-24	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.068	2.08x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-25	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.068	1.55x	−park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-26	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.121	0.077	1.57x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data