Sparrow Data

Pick history — Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 20 games across 20 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 4.02 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.277	0.82x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.277	0.92x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.277	0.87x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.275	0.88x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.275	0.82x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.274	0.88x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.274	0.82x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.278	0.87x	−SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.278	0.87x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.280	0.86x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.269	0.86x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.262	0.81x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-28	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.263	0.77x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.231	0.83x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.223	0.84x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.216	0.98x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.216	0.98x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.210	1.00x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.212	0.99x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.205	1.11x	+SP strikeout rate, +SP career barrels allowed	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data