Sparrow Data

Pick history — Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 6 games across 6 nights, from 8 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.38 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

25%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-20	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.053	1.51x	+park factor, −lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.061	1.91x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-07-24	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.062	1.69x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-26	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.061	1.71x	+park factor, −career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.062	1.30x	−career barrel rate, +recent HR count	not yet graded
2026-08-21	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.091	0.084	1.08x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data