Sparrow Data

Pick history — Henry Davis

Henry Davis

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 11 games across 11 nights, from 16 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 5 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.42 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

11%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.117	1.50x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-07-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.118	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-06	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-22	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.109	1.68x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-23	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.31x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-09-24	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.128	1.10x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data