Sparrow Data

Pick history — Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 11 games across 11 nights, from 19 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 8 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.64 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.125	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.146	1.25x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.26x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.119	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.112	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.112	1.42x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+career barrel rate, +season fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +season fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-21	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.115	1.22x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data