Sparrow Data

Pick history — Heriberto Hernández

Heriberto Hernández

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 13 games across 13 nights, from 14 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.13 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

17%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-11	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.29x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.130	1.23x	−SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.127	1.59x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.126	1.48x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.126	1.45x	+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.126	1.45x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.26x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.28x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.40x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.130	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-14	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.123	1.48x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.123	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data