Sparrow Data

Pick history — Andrés Chaparro

Andrés Chaparro

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 12 games across 12 nights, from 19 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 7 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.28 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

25%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.094	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-07-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.094	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP career barrels allowed	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.092	2.04x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
2026-07-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.108	1.69x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.099	1.78x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.099	1.62x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.095	1.30x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.093	1.71x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data