Sparrow Data

Pick history — Andrés Chaparro

Andrés Chaparro

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 26 games across 26 nights, from 41 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 15 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 3.27 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

20%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.094	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-07-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.094	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP career barrels allowed	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.092	2.04x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
2026-07-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.108	1.69x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.099	1.78x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.099	1.62x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.095	1.30x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.093	1.71x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.107	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.122	1.54x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-27	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.136	1.38x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-30	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-31	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.58x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-02	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.118	1.38x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-12	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.114	1.23x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-09-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.114	1.54x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-20	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.130	1.23x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-21	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.130	1.36x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-09-25	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.27x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data