Sparrow Data
Pick history — William Contreras
William Contreras
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 2 games across 2 nights, from 4 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.
Times picked
2graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
1against 0.32 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
50%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.107 | 1.49x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-08-15 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.106 | 1.50x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data