Sparrow Data

Pick history — William Contreras

William Contreras

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 19 games across 19 nights, from 31 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 12 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.49 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

35%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.107	1.49x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.50x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.31x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.107	1.49x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.33x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.37x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-27	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.090	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.091	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-02	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.091	1.36x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-03	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.090	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.090	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-09-08	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.097	1.27x	−SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.103	1.54x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.109	1.47x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.58x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data