Sparrow Data
Pick history — Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 3 games across 3 nights
Times picked
3graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
1against 0.35 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
33%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.082 | 1.50x | +lineup slot, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-09-19 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.070 | 1.49x | +lineup slot, +SP fly balls allowed | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-22 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.076 | 1.54x | +lineup slot, +season barrel rate | no |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data