Sparrow Data

Pick history — Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 14 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.52 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

40%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-21	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.120	1.12x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.50x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-27	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.106	1.32x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.113	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.113	1.35x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-06	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.113	1.26x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-07	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.121	1.16x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-09	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.123	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data