Sparrow Data
Pick history — Mike Trout
Mike Trout
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 4 games across 4 nights
Times picked
3graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
1against 0.55 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
33%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | ELEVATED | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.155 | 1.21x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-09-22 | AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.152 | 1.16x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-09-23 | AROUND SLATE | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.151 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-26 | ELEVATED | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.150 | 1.22x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data