Sparrow Data

Pick history — Max Muncy

Max Muncy

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 17 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 7 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.88 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

11%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.170	1.42x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.181	1.16x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-23	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.180	1.17x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.178	1.14x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.180	1.17x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-17	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.172	1.23x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.171	1.23x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-19	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.172	1.31x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.171	1.23x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data