Sparrow Data

Pick history — Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 12 games across 12 nights, from 15 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.49 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.178	1.03x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.187	1.22x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.187	1.09x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.179	1.18x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.180	1.04x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.177	1.19x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.176	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-28	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.178	1.27x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.178	1.18x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.175	1.16x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.181	1.16x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.181	1.12x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data