Sparrow Data

Pick history — Jake Burger

Jake Burger

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 10 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.37 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

29%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.151	1.21x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.158	1.21x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.154	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.162	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.158	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.157	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-12	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.156	1.17x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.156	1.22x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data