Sparrow Data

Pick history — Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 28 games across 27 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 6.28 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

30%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.262	0.90x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.262	0.92x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.258	0.93x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.262	0.92x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.264	0.91x	+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.264	0.91x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.261	0.87x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.261	0.88x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-23	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.261	0.98x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.255	0.89x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.254	0.95x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-28	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.255	0.94x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.250	0.84x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.250	0.84x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.255	0.94x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.255	0.94x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.255	0.94x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-07	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.257	0.88x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.255	0.89x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.250	0.91x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.244	0.83x	+career barrel rate, −SP exit velo allowed	HOME RUN
2026-08-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.250	0.95x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.245	0.92x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.238	0.85x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.238	0.85x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data