Sparrow Data

Pick history — Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 11 games across 11 nights, from 17 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 6 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.94 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

27%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.120	1.69x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.121	1.59x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.126	1.29x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.127	1.48x	+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.132	1.71x	+SP career barrels allowed, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.132	1.21x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-22	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.138	1.18x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-25	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.138	0.89x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-27	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.30x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.145	1.21x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data