Sparrow Data

Pick history — Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 40 games across 40 nights, from 65 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 25 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 6.00 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.118	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.118	1.29x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-19	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.117	1.20x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.118	1.55x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+recent barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed	no
2026-07-27	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.117	1.39x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.30x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.31x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.50x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.174	0.122	1.43x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.116	1.40x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.57x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.57x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-18	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.30x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.31x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-25	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.110	1.22x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.35x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.34x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.34x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-01	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.105	1.12x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-03	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.104	1.37x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.098	1.46x	+lineup slot, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-05	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.098	1.37x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-06	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.104	1.01x	−SP career HR rate, −SP career barrels allowed	no
2026-09-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.105	1.36x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.104	1.37x	+SP career HR rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-13	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.110	1.39x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-16	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.30x	−SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.109	1.46x	+recent barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.35x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.35x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data