Sparrow Data

Pick history — Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 19 games across 19 nights, from 33 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 14 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 3.17 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.118	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.118	1.29x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-19	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.117	1.20x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.118	1.55x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+recent barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed	no
2026-07-27	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.117	1.39x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.30x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.31x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.50x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.174	0.122	1.43x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.116	1.40x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.57x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.57x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data