Sparrow Data

Pick history — Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 29 games across 29 nights, from 30 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 6.69 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

19%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.267	1.09x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.267	0.95x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.266	1.08x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-17	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.273	1.05x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.273	1.06x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.266	0.91x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.260	0.93x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.254	1.00x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.244	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.242	0.93x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-28	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.238	1.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-29	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.244	1.05x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.244	0.99x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-07	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.244	0.99x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.238	1.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.232	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.232	1.04x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.232	1.04x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.231	0.99x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.231	1.05x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.280	0.231	1.22x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data