Sparrow Data

Pick history — Austin Riley

Austin Riley

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 25 games across 25 nights, from 39 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 14 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 3.80 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.113	1.35x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.34x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.33x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.103	1.30x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.116	1.61x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.112	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.112	1.63x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-27	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.112	1.68x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.112	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.105	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.097	1.48x	+career barrel rate, −lineup slot	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.39x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-05	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.103	1.38x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-06	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.102	1.49x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.108	1.73x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.107	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.105	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-14	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.112	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.111	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.110	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.109	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data