Sparrow Data

Pick history — Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernández

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 29 games across 29 nights, from 44 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 15 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 5.18 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

21%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.141	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.126	1.45x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.126	1.40x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.125	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-21	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-29	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.119	1.18x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-30	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.119	1.18x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-01	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.126	1.45x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-03	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.125	1.27x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.125	1.53x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.125	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-06	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.125	1.27x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.125	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-09-08	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.132	1.39x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.132	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.118	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.125	1.46x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.38x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-17	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.133	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.133	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.133	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.133	1.44x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-22	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.38x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-23	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.132	1.39x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-24	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.124	1.47x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.178	0.124	1.43x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data