Sparrow Data

Pick history — Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 20 games across 20 nights, from 33 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 13 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.74 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

22%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.090	1.77x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.091	1.94x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.090	1.58x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.091	2.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.091	2.07x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-22	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.084	1.70x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-24	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.084	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-25	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.090	1.30x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.097	1.64x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.097	1.64x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.097	1.47x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.104	1.37x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.36x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.29x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-13	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.110	1.38x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.111	1.83x	+SP career barrels allowed, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data