Sparrow Data

Pick history — Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 45 games across 45 nights, from 63 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 18 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 6.28 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

22%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.090	1.77x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.091	1.94x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.090	1.58x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.091	2.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.091	2.07x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-22	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.084	1.70x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-24	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.084	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-25	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.090	1.30x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.097	1.64x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.097	1.64x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.097	1.47x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.104	1.37x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.36x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.29x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-13	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.110	1.38x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.111	1.83x	+SP career barrels allowed, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.27x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.103	1.54x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-28	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.097	1.20x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-01	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.098	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-02	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.098	1.43x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-03	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.091	1.47x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.091	1.55x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-07	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.095	1.47x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-08	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.095	1.48x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-09-11	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.101	1.42x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-09-13	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.106	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-14	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.105	1.52x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.111	1.29x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-16	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.110	1.67x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.119	1.53x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.118	1.49x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-26	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.117	1.15x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data