Sparrow Data

Pick history — Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 15 games across 15 nights, from 24 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 9 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.35 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

12%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.109	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.116	1.32x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-07-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.121	1.50x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-01	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.123	1.43x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.116	1.31x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.119	1.48x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.119	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data