Sparrow Data

Pick history — Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 40 games across 40 nights, from 67 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 27 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 3.79 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

12%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.109	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.116	1.32x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-07-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.121	1.50x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-01	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.123	1.43x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.116	1.31x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.119	1.48x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.119	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.111	1.83x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.103	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.096	1.49x	−SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-23	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.096	1.22x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.098	1.63x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-08-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.098	1.94x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-28	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.090	2.09x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-08-29	SLEEPERS	T3 · Solid	0.174	0.090	1.94x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-30	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.081	1.77x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-31	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.082	1.86x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-02	SLEEPERS	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.081	1.73x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-06	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.083	2.19x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-08	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.084	1.67x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-09	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.084	1.70x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-10	SLEEPERS	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.083	1.68x	+pull tendency, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-09-11	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.083	1.71x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-12	SLEEPERS	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.083	1.68x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-13	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.084	1.90x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-15	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.085	1.65x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-18	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.086	1.67x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-19	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.086	1.67x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.094	1.49x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-09-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.105	1.68x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.35x	+SP career HR rate, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data