Sparrow Data

Pick history — Kevin McGonigle

Kevin McGonigle

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 10 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.08 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

50%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.086	1.21x	−park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-07-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.092	1.52x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.091	1.57x	+park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.099	1.44x	+SP fly balls allowed, +lineup slot	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.098	1.44x	+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot	no
2026-07-28	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.094	1.32x	−park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.092	1.52x	+park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data