Sparrow Data

Pick history — Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 26 games across 26 nights, from 44 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 18 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 4.57 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

24%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.40x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.129	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.130	1.22x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-18	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.129	1.41x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.129	1.45x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-25	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.131	1.21x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-26	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.130	1.25x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.129	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.128	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.127	1.65x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.134	1.72x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.133	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.140	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.138	1.15x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-05	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.137	1.16x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-06	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.136	1.19x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-07	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.135	1.05x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-09	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.141	1.13x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-08-10	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.140	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-08-12	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.144	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-08-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.24x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data