Sparrow Data

Pick history — Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 14 games across 14 nights, from 19 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 5 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.95 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

33%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.106	1.35x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.31x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-31	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.096	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-05	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-08	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.097	1.47x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.111	1.29x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.25x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-09-02	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.130	1.23x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-09-09	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.147	1.27x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.153	1.25x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data