Sparrow Data

Pick history — Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 7 games across 7 nights, from 9 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.30 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.188	1.20x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.188	1.12x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.185	1.23x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.182	1.12x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.187	1.08x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.188	1.21x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.185	1.14x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data