Sparrow Data

Pick history — Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 4 games across 4 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.54 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

67%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-16	FAVORITES	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.156	1.05x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.153	1.23x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-18	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.148	1.27x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.31x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data