Sparrow Data

Pick history — Garrett Mitchell

Garrett Mitchell

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 19 games across 19 nights, from 30 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 11 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.33 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+recent barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-22	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.112	1.27x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-07-31	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.105	1.36x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.098	1.37x	−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.37x	−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.098	1.44x	+SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	−recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.095	1.47x	−recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-31	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.094	1.11x	−SP career HR rate, −SP career barrels allowed	not yet graded
2026-09-04	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.094	1.32x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-09-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.093	1.51x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.092	1.35x	−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-22	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.101	1.33x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.100	1.59x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.099	1.60x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data