Sparrow Data

Pick history — Tim Tawa

Tim Tawa

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 13 games across 13 nights, from 16 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.98 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-09	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.125	1.27x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-31	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.129	1.26x	+recent barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-01	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.128	1.11x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-02	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+recent barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.125	1.46x	+SP fly balls allowed, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-05	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.124	1.47x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-08	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.121	1.16x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.119	1.48x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-24	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.127	1.44x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.127	1.39x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data