Sparrow Data

Pick history — Josh Bell

Josh Bell

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 7 games across 7 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.99 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-11	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.143	1.31x	+SP fly balls allowed, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-24	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.128	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.174	0.133	1.31x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data