Sparrow Data

Pick history — Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 2 games across 2 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.36 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

50%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-20	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.162	1.16x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-28	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.167	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data