Sparrow Data
Pick history — Kyle Karros
Kyle Karros
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 12 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.
Times picked
6graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
1against 0.73 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
17%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.076 | 1.55x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-17 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.081 | 1.52x | +recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-21 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.079 | 1.77x | +park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-25 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.078 | 1.59x | +recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-08-02 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.076 | 1.63x | +park factor, +lineup slot | not yet graded |
| 2026-08-10 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.074 | 1.41x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-11 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.074 | 1.66x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| 2026-08-12 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.081 | 1.46x | +park factor, +lineup slot | not yet graded |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data